A new report from The Mendoza Law Firm on immigrant labor dependence finds that immigrants are not only concentrated in hands-on operational sectors, but are also deeply embedded in high-skill and knowledge-driven work, from healthcare and engineering to IT and business services, making immigration trends a central factor in America’s long-term competitiveness.
The findings arrive amid a historic demographic shift. Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data shows that the U.S. immigrant population reached a record 53.3 million in January 2025, before declining to about 51.9 million by June 2025, the first sustained drop since the 1960s.
“This study challenges the lazy myth that immigrant work fits into just one box,” said a spokesperson with the firm. “Immigrants keep the lights on and the supply chain moving, and they also fill specialized roles that power innovation, research, and patient care.”
Immigrants span both ends of the labor market
The report highlights a key reality: immigrants are heavily represented in labor-intensive sectors, but they also hold a major presence in professional and business services, as well as advanced technical work that depends on specialized education and skills.
This “dual presence” matters because the U.S. labor challenge is not one challenge; it’s many. In some sectors, the shortfall is physical capacity and shift coverage. In others, it’s specialized expertise and credentialed talent.
Labor force growth has been increasingly dependent on immigration
Long-range labor market trends provide context for why changes in immigration levels now reverberate through the economy. A National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) policy brief concluded that immigrants accounted for 88% of U.S. labor force growth since 2019 in its analysis. NFAP also notes that immigrants and their children have represented a dominant share of labor force growth over multi-decade windows.
In short, immigration has not been “extra.” It has been a major driver of workforce expansion during an era when demographic headwinds—aging and lower birth rates—make organic labor growth harder.
Immigration trends show up in economic indicators
Recent reporting has begun connecting immigration declines to measurable labor market effects. Coverage of a San Francisco Federal Reserve analysis indicated that declines in unauthorized immigration flows were associated with slower job growth, especially in sectors like construction and manufacturing. While those are not the only impacted sectors, the finding underscores a broader point: labor supply shifts can influence job creation, output, and growth rates.
Social Security and fiscal stability are part of the workforce story
The report also notes that immigrants contribute to U.S. fiscal systems through payroll taxes, including Social Security, often for years, and in some cases without ultimately collecting benefits, depending on immigration status and eligibility. A Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) analysis emphasizes that immigrants contribute to Social Security through payroll taxes and can strengthen the program’s finances. Additional policy analysis has estimated that unauthorized immigrants alone contributed tens of billions in Social Security taxes in recent years (for example, one explainer cites $25.7 billion in 2022).
The study frames this not as a talking point, but as a demographic math issue: when a workforce grows more slowly, the ratio of workers supporting retirees can tighten—raising the stakes of labor force participation and steady employment growth.
The “immigrant decline” is a workforce signal
Pew’s finding that the immigrant population declined between January and June 2025 is significant because it suggests a reversal in a long-running trend. The study emphasizes that if declines persist, whether due to fewer arrivals, higher departures, or intensified enforcement, industries that already face shortages may feel sharper constraints, and high-skill sectors may experience intensified competition for specialized talent.
What comes next: stability, planning, and a realistic labor strategy
Rather than framing immigration as a single-issue debate, the report urges a workforce planning approach: predictable systems that align labor supply with real demand, targeted training pipelines, credential recognition where appropriate, and employer strategies to reduce churn and improve retention.
“Whether we’re talking about hospitals, software teams, or small businesses trying to hire, the question is the same,” said a spokesperson from the firm. “Do we want a workforce strategy built on reality, or on vibes and wishful thinking?”
The report concludes that America’s labor future is tightly linked to how well it manages workforce growth, across both essential operations and specialized high-skill roles. And with the foreign-born population showing signs of decline, the time for proactive planning is now.
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